Bolsas americanas: se armó el belén. La Navidad suele ser una época del año en las que las bolsas suben. El famoso rally de Navidad… Pero este año, tras muchos de subidas ininterrumpidas, la llegada de la Navidad solo se ha traducido en que se ha montado el belén. Pero un belén de los buenos.

Esta semana ha sido realmente dura. Y si no ha sido la semana más bajista desde que empezó la subida en 2009, poco ha faltado. Todo ello, como no podía ser de otro modo, por la rotura de niveles de soporte de importancia.

Veamos los gráficos.

Bolsas mundiales: peligro. Estaba claro, desde hace ya algunas semanas, que las bolsas europeas y las americanas, estaban en fase correctiva. Sin embargo, parecía que todo iba a encajar dentro de eso, una corrección dentro de la senda alcista.

Sin embargo, con las caídas de octubre y cómo ha empezado el mes de diciembre, se ha llegado a un punto muy peligroso que puede llevarnos a mayores caídas.

Vamos a ver los gráficos.

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As we can see at the chart below, Amazon is drawing a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern is identified by drawing two trendlines that connect a series of sequentially lower peaks and a series of sequentially higher troughs. Both trendlines act as barriers that prevent the price from heading higher or lower. However, once the price breaches one of these levels, a sharp movement often follows.

So we have to wait until one of these trendlines will be broken. A break below the lower trendline is used to signal a move lower, while a break above the upper trendline signals the beginning of a move upward.

In the meantime, we’ll try to find out about the chart to discover what trendline could be broken… Today we can see a doji star candlestick just in $76,32 resistance level (corresponding with April 18th gap). It seems price might stop the climb, but we’ll watch out for this resistance level. If it is broken, we can see new buying pressure, and price may head towards the upper trendline. If this resistance level can’t be broken, price will fall until reach the lower trendline (this possibility is more real as the doji star shows us).

Dell broke the bearish trendline (trendline started in January) last Tuesday. It was a bullish sign. Furthermore, as we can see at the chart below, the breakout was produced after a three white soldiers pattern. It’s a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of a downtrend.

This pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that have closed higher than the previous day. These long-bodied candlesticks are a sign of the change in investor sentiment and are used by traders to confirm a shift in momentum. In this case, this pattern has been produced after a prolonged downtrend, so the bullish sign is very strong.

After the breakout, the price is heading towards next resistance level: $20,85, corresponding with the 38,2% Fibonacci ratio of the fall from January. It’s possible a pullback. It could be a good moment for longs.

Next resistence levels: $20,85, $21,69, $22,01.
Next support levels: $20,01 and the broken bearish trendline.

As we know, it’s usually a bearish chart pattern that is created by drawing one trendline that connects a series of lower highs and a second trendline that has historically proven to be a strong level of support.

But now, stock price is trying to break the upper trendline. Be careful if this breakout is confirmed, because stock price can rise… The upper trendline matches with 23,6% Fibonacci ratio of the drop since December, so it can be a tough level to be broken.

We will watch for a move over resistance level, although this pattern usually is broken below support level.

Cerner was trying to break upper trendline of the descending channel today. However, the technical appearance of Cerner is very weak (remember what I wrote last February, 1 – read more -) and the breakout has been impossible.

Stock price has to close over $50 to improve technical appearance. Afterwards, it has to fill the bearish gap (February,1). But stock price can drop again if the lower trendline of the ascending channel since February,4 is broken.

Be careful, because it seems that this trendline can be broken today.

After reaching a top last November ($34,34), Cisco is following a bearish trend. When stock price drop below 200 MA, falling was faster.

Last Wednesday, Cisco reported earnings, but company’s forecast was disappointing for analysts. It made share price fell last Thursday below $22 support level. But, at this level, stock price bounced. And, at the end of the day, the candlestick was a dragonfly doji

This candlestick is very reliable, and more when it takes place in a bearish trend and at a support level. Moreover, this dragonfly doji was confirmed last Friday when stock price closed over previous doji top.

So, we can expect a bounce next days. Our first goal would be $25, and the second one could be $26,70 (38,2% Fibonacci ratio of fall since November).

Suppor level (and stop loss): $22.

Cisco lleva una clara tendencia bajista desde que en Noviembre alcanzara los 34,34 dólares. La presentación de unos resultados decepcionantes hizo que comenzara esa bajada con un gap bajista aún no cerrado.

Posteriormente, la situación empeoró al perderse la media de 200 sesiones, acelerándose la bajada hasta el soporte de los 22 dólares. Justo el pasado miércoles volvió a presentar resultados, y fueron de nuevo buenos, pero las previsiones para este año fueron malas y, por debajo de lo que esperaban los analistas.

Esto provocó que el valor cayera fuerte en el after-hours ese día y que ese día registrara fuertes caídas. Llegó a perder el nivel de soporte de los 22 dólares y allí inició una fuerte recuperación que dejó al valor con un cierre en positivo y, lo que es más importante, nos dejó una vela en forma de doji libélula (dragonfly doji).

La fiabilidad de esta vela es bastante grande y más cuando se produce en una tendencia tan bajista como la actual y en una zona de soporte. Digamos que esta vela es aún más fiable que un martillo.

Sin embargo, digamos que, como todas las velas, debía ser confirmada el viernes con un cierre por encima de la vela anterior. Y esto se produjo, aunque por poco, pero la vela del viernes cerró por encima del doji libélula.

Esto puede indicarnos que el valor puede rebotar en las próximas sesiones. Un primer objetivo estaría en los 25 dólares y, algo más arriba en los 26,70 (38,2% de Fibonacci de la caída desde Noviembre).

Por abajo, el soporte está claro en el mínimo del doji libélula. Deberemos vigilarlo muy de cerca en el caso de entrar en el valor.

Stock price is falling since November 7, 2007 after earnings report. But this drop ended last Wednesday. As we can see at the figure below, a hammer candlestick showed us the moment to bounce, just on $22 support level. This hammer was confirmed next day, thanks to a white candlestick with a closing price over hammer closing price.

Afterwards, stock price has risen reaching the first objective: 23,6% Fibonacci ratio of the drop since November. If this resistance level is broken, next objective would be the 38,2% Fibonacci ratio: $26,88.

Support level: $22,20

First resistance level: $25,14

Second resistance level: $26,88