Pfizer technical analysis: after a double top formation in 1999-2000, stock price plunged to a 12 years low in 2009 when a bottom was found. Afterwards, price began to rebound and has tripled since that bottom in 2009. According to our forecast, price should reach 36-37$ next weeks, although 38,90$ is the minimum goal for this rebound. We are going to explain it applying Elliott Wave Theory.
As we can see at the chart below, the 1999-2000 double top marked a change in trend from bullish to bearish. Probably this double top included a 5th wave failure so it explains why price plunged to a 12 years low in 2009. However, although shares fall sharply, it was a clear corrective pattern: a flat pattern with weak B wave. When 0-B trendline was broken in less time than C wave spent to be completed we’d be able to confirm that corrective pattern has finished. The breakout in 2011 was followed by a throw-back to this 0-B trendline so the minimum goal once ABC pattern is completed should be B zone (37-39$).
It seems that we have an impulsive pattern since 2009 bottom, so 5 waves are expected. The throw-back to the 0-B trendline was the end of wave 2 and wave 3 extended was completed in March 2014. Then wave 4 ends in October 2014 when wave 5 began. So we can draw the 2-4 trendline. As we know, when this trendline is broken we can confirm that wave 5 is completed a corrective pattern has began. The goal for wave 5 should be 35,60-38,19$ in order to get a wave 5 equal to wave 1, wave 5 equal to 38,2% of wave 1-3, 50% of wave 1-3 and 162% retracement of wave 4. Once price reaches this zone if we see a reversal signal and 2-4 trendline is broken, we can confirm that wave 5 is completed and a corrective pattern has began. The objective for this corrective pattern should be wave 4 zone for the previous impulsive pattern, so stock price should fall to 27,5$.
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Después de una tendencia alcista de años, Pfizer realizó un doble techo entre 1999 y 2000, lo que significó un cambio de tendencia de alcista a bajista. Este doble techo conllevó un fallo de 5 en 2000 y el comienzo de una caída en ABC hasta el mínimo de 2009, donde se hizo suelo y el valor rebotó con fuerza. La confirmación de que la corrección había acabado la tuvimos al romper la 0-B más deprisa de lo que se hizo la C y el posterior throw-back a esa 0-B desde donde se rebotó, así lo confirmó.
Entonces, desde ese 2009 estamos haciendo 5 alcistas, estando ya ahora en la onda 5 tras hacer una onda 2 en ese mínimo del throw-back, una onda 3 extendida en el máximo de 2014 y una onda 4 en el mínimo de octubre del año pasado. Podemos trazar ya la 2-4 a vigilar y cuya rotura nos confirmaría que la onda 5 ha acabado. El objetivo para la onda 5 debería estar entre el 35,60 y el 38,19. Una vez que alcancemos ese objetivo (y sin perder de vista que lo mínimo al final debe ser alcanzar la zona de la B del ABC desde máximos), una señal de giro que rompiera la 2-4 sería la señal de que hemos comenzado un movimiento correctivo que nos debería llevar a la zona de la 4, es decir, a la zona del 27,5.