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martes, 25 de diciembre de 2007

ULTRAPETROL (NASDAQ:ULTR): Trying to break the upper trendline

Opinión: 
Ultrapetrol (Bahamas) Limited (Nasdaq:ULTR)is an industrial transportation company serving marine transportation needs in four core markets (River Business, Offshore Supply Business, Ocean Business and Passenger Business).

Company announced financial results for the third quarter and first nine months ended September 30, 2007 last November 13, 2007. First Nine Months 2007 Highlights:

Total revenues for the first nine months and third quarter 2007 were $163.9 million and $63.1 million, respectively, compared with $127.7 million and $50.6 million, respectively, in the same periods of 2006.

EBITDA for the first nine months and third quarter 2007 were $43.3 million and $10.5 million respectively, compared with $49.3 million and $21.3 million respectively, in the same periods of 2006. The 2007 EBITDA includes a non-cash loss of $14.3 million and $11.2 million for the first nine months and third quarter respectively. EBITDA for the first nine months and third quarter 2007, excluding the effect of above items, is $57.6 million and $21.7 million respectively.

Earnings for the first nine months and third quarter 2007 were a loss of $(1.8) million or $(0.06) per share and a loss of $(4.7) million or $(0.15) per share, respectively, compared with income of $13.3 million or $0.86 per share and income of $8.0 million or $0.51 per share, respectively, during the same periods in 2006. The 2007 results include a non-cash mark-to-market net loss on FFA hedges of $(14.3) million or $(0.46) per share and $(11.2) million or $(0.34) (first nine months and third quarter respectively) and a deferred income tax charge of $(3.6) million or $(0.12) per share and $(1.2) million or $(0.04) per share from unrealized foreign currency exchange rate gains on U.S. Dollar denominated debt of our Brazilian subsidiary in the Offshore Supply Business (first nine months and third quarter respectively). Net Income for the first nine months and third quarter 2007, excluding the effect of both above items, is a gain of $16.1 million or $0.52 per share and $7.7 million or $0.23 per share, respectively.

Technical analysis:

The chart was following an ascending channel, reaching a 27,04$ top on 20th July. This channel was broken, including an down gap on 30th August. Afterwards, the chart has been following an descending channel as we can see in the figure below.


Yesterday the price of the stock closed over the upper trendline of the descending channel. However, the volume was low. But if the breakout is confirmed, a first objective is 19$. We will watch out for the chart next days.



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El valor siguió un canal alcista desde comienzos de 2007, hasta marcar un máximo de 27.04$ el 23 de Julio. Sin embargo, a partir de Agosto, el aspecto técnico se deterioró con la pérdida de dicho canal y con un gap bajista, que aún no ha sido cerrado. Así, el valor entró en un canal bajista que le llevó hasta un mínimo anual de 13,83$ el 12 de Noviembre. Desdde entonces, el valor se ha ido hacia la parte alta del canal, dando muestras de fortaleza al no volver a la parte baja.

Ayer, el valor subió un 5,46%, cerrando por encima del canal bajista. Sin embargo, por tratarse del día que era y de ser solo media jornada de bolsa, el volumen no fue considerable, con lo que debemos esperar una confirmación de la rotura del canal bajista. Si ésta se produce en los próximos días, un primer objetivo estará en los 19$. Y si ese objetivo se bate, el siguiente sería irse a por los 20$ y a cerrar el gap bajista del que hablábamos.

Por tanto, estaremos muy atentos a los próximos días y a la confirmación de la ruptura del canal bajista para ver la posibilidad de posicionarnos en el valor si vemos que no es una falsa ruptura...